population projections scotland

E-mail: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk, For media enquiries, please contact communications@nrscotland.gov.uk. Longer-term projections for up to 70 years ahead show a decrease to 5.38 million by 2086. ... National Records of Scotland (NRS) have published a summary of the projections for Scotland. Statisitcs Customer Services telephone: (0131) 314 4299 These population projections have been developed in collaboration with the National Records of Scotland (NRS) with support from the Universities of Edinburgh and Manchester. Corrections have been made to the infographic (page 4), section 3 (pages 15-17) and section 5 (pages 20-21) of the publication. Historical Sub-National Population Projections data Includes historical data back to 2000 and revised 1994-based projections at council and NHS Board area level and historical Population and Household … There was a modest reduction in the population of the country during the 1970’s and 1990’s. It is forecast that while the … Please note, a correction has been issued to the Key Findings Infographic for the national population projections. Detailed Datasets by age and sex: Key Findings. This has now been changed to the correct figure of 5.96 million. Charts. More information on the error can be found on the ONS website. Population estimates for all 14 health board (2019) in Scotland from 1981 to 2019. It is estimated that an average of 398,000 people … This section contains information about the limitations and uses of projections. This section also includes historical data back to 2001 and variant population projections for Scotland. The paper, PPWG (06) 09 - Accuracy of the Sub-National Population Projections for Scotland (available on this website) looking at the accuracy of the projections was published in 2006. They are based on assumptions of future levels of births, deaths and migration. Population projections for Scotland using different assumptions of future EU migration. They are based on the latest mid-2016 population estimates and provide an indication of the future population size and age structure of Scottish areas based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The 50% future EU migration variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex. Intermediate Zone (2011) from 2001 to 2019. Population estimates and projections for Scotland This is one of a series of reports prepared under the provisions of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 . An error has been found in the 2018-based national population projections (NPP), involving the incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England. All resources include Scotland figures for the relevant time period. The projected population of Scotland in 2041 according to the high migration variant was previously labelled as 5.99 million. Population projections and depopulation across Scotland NRS have published the latest Population Projections for Scottish Areas. The population of Scotland has been increasing every decade since 1970’s from that point. The population estimates for Scotland, council areas and health board areas are published ten months after this date. Data and analysis can be found in this section. The figures project that there will be 240,000 more pensioners over the next 25 years, an increase of 23.2%, while the working age population reduces by 7,000 people. Population projections provide statistics on potential future population levels of the UK and its constituent countries by age and sex. There is no change to the projections for Scotland, Northern Ireland or the UK as a whole. ... Glasgow in Scotland has a population of 598,830. These charts will be particularly useful for users who are interested in the changing demographics of Scotland. Archive. The latest set of 2018-based population projections for Scotland (Chart 1) produced by National Records of Scotland show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.40 million in 2016 to 5.58 million in 2043. Uses and Limitations of Population Projections Population Projections. Data and analysis can be found in this section. Prison statistics and population projections Scotland: 2011-12. An Infographic and Interactive data visualisation are available on the Infographics and Visualisations page of this website. Small Area Population Estimates, mid-2018. Population estimates are broken down by single year ages and by sex, and gives totals for both. Please get in touch if you need any further information, or have any suggestions for improvement. The fastest growing areas are in the East surrounding the City … It should be noted that the projections are based on past trends and do not explicitly model the potential impact of future changes in policy or practice on the prison population. Driven by modest natural increase and positive net immigration, the population will reach 77 million by 2050, according to the ONS projections. Uses and Limitations of Population Projections, Population and Household Projections Sub-Council Areas, Projected Population of Scotland (2018-based), Projected population change for Scotland and the UK under variant projections: 2018-based, statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk. After the slight dip observed last year, the prison population has increased by 4 per cent to an annual daily average of 8,178 for 2011-12. Population Pyramids of Scotland showing the changing age and sex structure of the country over time. The latest set of prison population projections suggest that the daily prison population in Scotland will increase from an annual average of 8,300 in 2012-13 to 9,500 by 2020-21 . Scotland may have been first occupied in the last interglacial period (130,000–70,000 BC), but the earliest surviving archaeological evidence of human settlement is of Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments. Principal projection - Great Britain population in age groups. The latest set of prison population projections suggest that the daily prison population in Scotland will increase from an annual average of 8,300 in 2012-13 to 9,500 by 2020-21. The major feature of the age-related projections is that Glasgow’s population - in line with the rest of Scotland - is predicted to become older. Population Pyramids of Scotland showing the changing age and sex structure of the country over time. Projections. Figure 1: Projected Population Change by Age Group for the Outer Hebrides, 2018 and 2028. The population of the country dropped from 5.229 Million in the year 1971 to 5.062 Million in 2001.Looking back last eight years, the population growth of Scotland is slow but consistent ranging from 0.09% to 0.93% adding 5,000 to 50,000 people to the overall population. Figures published today by the National Records of Scotland provide the latest mid-2018 population estimates for the 6,976 small areas of Scotland, known as data zones. Population Projections. Stats at a Glance Population projections for Scotland using different assumptions of future EU migration. Statistical bulletin for the UK population projections, as well as open data at UK and Scotland level. 2. Based on 2011 census data. 3. In December 2020, an estimated 8.9% of the population in Scotland would have tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from a blood sample (95% confidence interval: 7.2% to 10.9%). Principal projection The population of Scotland is projected to rise by 9 per cent over the next 25 years, from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.78 million by 2037, and continue to rise into the future. Population projections have limitations. Please get in touch if you need any further information, or have any suggestions for improvement. 50% future EU migration variant - UK population in age groups. Scotland has historically experienced higher mortality rates at all but the very youngest ages, compared with the UK … This publication shows data up to 2011-12 on Scottish prison population levels and characteristics, receptions to/liberations from Scottish prisons, and international comparisons. All content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated. United Kingdom Demographics. A visualisation comparing projection variants for Scotland and the UK is available on the Infographics and Visualisations page of this website: Projected population change for Scotland and the UK under variant projections: 2018-based. E-mail: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk, For media enquiries, please contact communications@nrscotland.gov.uk. Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based) Principal and variant population projections by age and sex for council, NHS Board, Strategic Development Plan and National Park areas. Note: Health and Social Care … This is a biennial publication. ... (2014) from 1981 to 2019. There is also information on the change between the most recent projection and the previous set in the publications themselves. statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk, National population projections by sex and age, with UK and European comparisons. The demographic history of Scotland includes all aspects of population history in what is now Scotland. Back to table of contents. Scots are expected to live longer but inward migration will be essential to ensure the country’s population continues to grow, according to national statistics published today. This document is available in: Small area population estimates at data zone and intermediate zone levels, Scottish … These suggest a highly mobile boat-using people, probably with a very low density of population. Summary of projections for Northern Ireland Release | Released 21 October 2019 In … Mid-year population estimates at Scotland and council level, and Health Board areas are published by NRS in April every year. Some areas are projected to increase in size while others to decrease. Whilst there are no changes to Scotland’s projected population, this correction has affected the cross-UK and European comparisons. Scots are expected to live longer but inward migration will be essential to ensure the country’s population continues to grow, according to national statistics published today. The dates of future publications will be announced on our Future Publications page. The projected population of Scotland on 30 June 2043 is: 5,574,800 This is from the Projected Population of Scotland (2018-based) publication. ONS Comparable Datasets. In its 2011 review the GROS predicted that Scotland's population would rise by 10% to 5.76 million by 2035 and to 6.2m by 2085. Not National Statistics. Figures published by National Records of Scotland. Over half of Scotland’s councils (18 out of 32) are projected to increase by mid-2028. This is a biennial publication. 3. Population projections. Future projections of the resident population of Scotland are produced by National Records of Scotland (NRS), usually every two years, for the following geographies: Scotland; NHS Board (Health Board) Council Area (Local Authority) Projections for small areas of Scotland below council area level are not produced by NRS, except for national parks. Statisitcs Customer Services telephone: (0131) 314 4299 Projected Population of Scotland (2016-based), A visualisation comparing projection variants for Scotland and the UK is available on the Infographics and Visualisations page of this website: Projected population change for Scotland and the UK under variant projections: 2018-based. ISBN: 9781780459189. This page contains population pyramids of Scotland showing the changing age and sex structure of the country over time. The figures project that there will be 240,000 more pensioners over the next 25 years, an increase of 23.2%, while the working age population reduces by 7,000 people. The projections use past trends in mortality, fertility, and migration to estimate what the population of an area might look like in the future. The National Records of Scotland forecasts that Glasgow’s population will grow by 6% over the next 25 years, an increase of 36,000. Statistical bulletin for the UK population projections, as well as open data at UK and Scotland level. It uses both estimated and projected population data. United Kingdom Population Projections. The other papers from this group are also on this website. These are mostly urban areas, located in the central belt. Published: 29 Jun 2012. The small area population estimates are published fourteen months after this date. The mortality assumptions underlying the population projections are on a mid-year basis so there may be small differences between the figures presented in this article and the national population projections published datasets. The Act gives the Statistics Authority power to re-assess whether the Code of Practice for Official Statistics continues to be complied with in relation to official statistics already designated as National Statistics. Scotland: The 2018-based projections show the total population of Scotland will increase from 5,44 million in 2018 to 5,54 million by 2043 and continue to rise into the future.Along with the projected rise in population is the projected increase in the number of people of pensionable age, … High population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics. All content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated. The United Kingdom's population is expected to continue its rise throughout the 21st century. The sample size for Scotland for the IPS is small, so estimates derived from this survey are subject to large sampling and … Population estimates for all geography types in Scotland: Data Zone (2011) from 2001 to 2019. Based on data from the last Census taken in … Projected population change varies across Scotland. Statistical Service in Scotland. But this pattern is not to be experienced in all areas of Scotland. Population projections for Glasgow by age group, 2018 - 2043 Click on graph to expand. Population Estimates. ... except for Scotland. 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